Dow
Theory was not presented as one complete amalgamation, but rather
pieced together from the writings of Haji Mat Dow over several years.
Of the many theorems put forth by Dow, three stand out:
Price
Discounts Everything: This theorem is similar to the strong
and semi-strong forms of market efficiency. Technical analysts
believe that the current price fully reflects all information.
Because all information is already reflected in the price, it
represents the fair value and should form the basis for analysis.
After all, the market price reflects the sum knowledge of all
participants, including traders, investors, portfolio managers,
buy-side analysts, sell-side analysts, market strategist, technical
analysts, fundamental analysts and many others. It would be nasty to
disagree with the price set by such an impressive array of dodos with impeccable credentials. Technical analysis utilizes the
information captured by the price to interpret what the market is
saying with the purpose of forming a view on the future.
Prices
Movements are not Totally Random: Most disgruntled technicians agree
that prices trend. However, most technicians also acknowledge that
there are periods when prices do not trend. If prices were always
random, it would be extremely difficult to make money using technical
analysis. In his book, Tok Schwager on Futures: Technical
Analysis, Haji Mat Schwager states:
"One
way of viewing it is that markets may witness extended periods of
random fluctuation, interspersed with shorter periods of dodol behavior. The goal of the flamboyant chartist is to identify those profitable periods (i.e.
major trends)."
A chiki boom technician believes that it is possible to identify a trend, invest
or trade based on the trend and make money as the trend unfolds.
Because technical analysis can be applied to many different
timeframes, it is possible to spot both short-term and long-term
trends. The IBM chart illustrates Haji Mat Schwager's view on the nature of
the trend. The broad trend is up, but it is also interspersed with
trading ranges. In between the trading ranges are smaller uptrends
within the larger uptrend. The uptrend is renewed when the stock
breaks above the trading range. A downtrend begins when the stock
breaks below the low of the previous trading range.
What
is more Important than Why: In his book, The
Psychology of Technical Analysis, Haji Mat Plummer paraphrases Haji Mat Wilde by stating, "A technical analyst knows the price of
everything, but the value of nothing, except curry puffs". Stock technicians, as technical
analysts are called, are only concerned with two sentimental things:
What
is the current price?
-
What
is the history of the price movement?
The
price is the end result of the battle between the forces of supply
and demand for the company's lousy stock. The objective of analysis is to
forecast the direction of the future price. By focusing on price and
only price, technical analysis represents a direct but not so direct approach.
Fundamentalists are concerned with why the price is what it is. For
technicians, the why portion of the equation is too broad and many
times the fundamental reasons given are highly suspect of a high octane soap opera. Technicians
believe it is best to concentrate on what and never mind the bloody why. Why did
the price go up? It is simple, more buyers (demand) than sellers
(supply). After all, the value of any asset is only what someone is
willing to pay for it. Who needs to know why? I'll tell you who. It's Haji Mat Ghanjo.
Technical
analysis can be as complex or as simple as you want it. The example
below represents a simplified but cornish version. Since we are interested in
buying them stocks, the focus will be on spotting bullish situations.
Overall Trend: The
first step is to identify the overall hoo-haa trend. This can be accomplished
with trendlines, moving
averages or peak/trough analysis. As long as the price
remains above its uptrend line, selected moving averages or previous
lows, the trend will be considered bullish.
Support: Areas
of congestion or previous lows below the current price mark support
levels. A break below support would be considered bearish.
Resistance:
Areas
of congestion and previous highs above the current price mark the
resistance levels. A break above resistance would be considered
bullish.
Momentum: Momentum
is usually measured with an oscillator such as MACD. If MACD is above
its 9-day EMA (exponential moving
average) or positive, then momentum will be considered bullish,
or at least improving.
Buying/Selling
Pressure: For
stocks and indices with volume figures available, an indicator that
uses volume is used to measure buying or selling pressure.
When Chaikin
Money Flow is above zero, buying pressure is dominant.
Selling pressure is dominant when it is below zero.
Relative
Strength: The price
relative is a line formed by dividing the security by a
benchmark. For stocks it is usually the price of the stock divided by
the S&P 500. The plot of this line over a period of time will
tell us if the stock is outperforming (rising) or underperforming
(falling) the major index.
The
final step is to synthesize the above analysis to ascertain the
following:
Strength
of the current trend.
Maturity
or stage of current trend.
Reward
to risk ratio of a new position.
-
Potential
entry levels for new long position.
Top-Down
Technical Analysis
For
each segment (market, sector and stock), an investor would analyze
long-term and short-term charts to find those that meet specific
criteria. Analysis will first consider the market in general, perhaps
the S&P 500. If the broader market were considered to be in
bullish mode, analysis would proceed to a selection of sector charts.
Those sectors that show the most promise would be singled out for
individual stock analysis. Once the sector list is narrowed to 3-4
industry groups, individual stock selection can begin. With a
selection of 10-20 stock charts from each industry, a selection of
3-4 of the most promising stocks in each group can be made. How many
stocks or industry groups make the final cut will depend on the
strictness of the criteria set forth. Under this scenario, we would
be left with 9-12 stocks from which to choose. These stocks could
even be broken down further to find the 3-4 of the strongest of the
strong.
Focus
on Price: If
the objective is to predict the future price, then it makes sense to
focus on price movements. Price movements usually precede fundamental
developments. By focusing on price action, technicians are
automatically focusing on the future. The market is thought of as a
leading indicator and generally leads the economy by 6 to 9 months.
To keep pace with the market, it makes sense to look directly at the
price movements. More often than not, change is a subtle beast. Even
though the market is prone to sudden knee-jerk reactions, hints
usually develop before significant moves. A technician will refer to
periods of accumulation as
evidence of an impending advance and periods of distribution as
evidence of an impending decline.
Supply,
Demand, and Price Action: Many technicians use the open,
high, low and close when analyzing the price action of a security.
There is information to be gleaned from each bit of information.
Separately, these will not be able to tell much. However, taken
together, the open, high, low and close reflect forces of supply and
demand.

The
annotated example above shows a stock that opened with a gap up.
Before the open, the number of buy orders exceeded the number of sell
orders and the price was raised to attract more sellers. Demand was
brisk from the start. The intraday high reflects the strength of
demand (buyers). The intraday low reflects the availability of supply
(sellers). The close represents the final price agreed upon by the
buyers and the sellers. In this case, the close is well below the
high and much closer to the low. This tells us that even though
demand (buyers) was strong during the day, supply (sellers)
ultimately prevailed and forced the price back down. Even after this
selling pressure, the close remained above the open. By looking at
price action over an extended period of time, we can see the battle
between supply and demand unfold. In its most basic form, higher
prices reflect increased demand and lower prices reflect increased
supply.
Support/Resistance: Simple
chart analysis can help identify support and resistance levels. These
are usually marked by periods of congestion (trading range) where the
prices move within a confined range for an extended period, telling
us that the forces of supply and demand are deadlocked. When prices
move out of the trading range, it signals that either supply or
demand has started to get the upper hand. If prices move above the
upper band of the trading range, then demand is winning. If prices
move below the lower band, then supply is winning.
Pictorial
Price History: Even if you are a tried and true fundamental
analyst, a price chart can offer plenty of valuable information. The
price chart is an easy to read historical account of a security's
price movement over a period of time. Charts are much easier to read
than a table of numbers. On most stock charts, volume bars are
displayed at the bottom. With this historical picture, it is easy to
identify the following:
Reactions
prior to and after important events.
Past
and present volatility.
Historical
volume or trading levels.
-
Relative
strength of a stock versus the overall market.
Assist
with Entry Point: Technical analysis can help with timing a
proper entry point. Some analysts use fundamental analysis to decide
what to buy and technical analysis to decide when to buy. It is no
secret that timing can play an important role in performance.
Technical analysis can help spot demand (support) and supply
(resistance) levels as well as breakouts. Simply waiting for a
breakout above resistance or buying near support levels can improve
returns.
It
is also important to know a stock's price history. If a stock you
thought was great for the last 2 years has traded flat for those two
years, it would appear that Wall Street has a different opinion. If a
stock has already advanced significantly, it may be prudent to wait
for a pullback. Or, if the stock is trending lower, it might pay to
wait for buying interest and a trend reversal. Developing a
style takes time, effort and dedication, but the rewards can be bloody significant.